By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Costco Wholesale Corporation is a membership warehouse club that sells a variety of food, automotive supplies, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewellery, electronics, apparel, health, and beauty aids, as well as other goods with a sizeable international footprint.
Founded in 1983, the company has grown into one of the world's largest retailers, offering a limited selection of bulk, high-quality products - both well-known brands and its private label, Kirkland Signature, at attractive prices through tight markup controls and efficient operations. Costco operates an international chain of membership warehouses, mainly under the Costco Wholesale banner.
Technically a developing bullish pennant pattern (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart) typically supports a constructive outlook for a stock, as it reflects a short consolidation phase following a strong upward move. The current price near the lower range of the supporting trendline, reinforces underlying demand and offers a potential accumulation zone for buyers.
The DPO's (De-trended Price Oscillator) stabilisation close to the -2 standard deviation band supports a bullish bias for the stock (see the insert on the main chart). The stock price may be entering a phase of mean reversion.
Fading downside price momentum per the MACD histogram and the recent upward trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | COST US |
| Industry | Consumer Staples Distributions |
| Market Capital (USD) | 415.5 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 5.46% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 2.70% |
| Current Price (USD) | 937.50 |
| 52 Week High (USD) | 1 078.24 |
| 52 Week Low (USD) | 867.34 |
| Financial Year End | August |
| The price is approaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) from below, which also supports a bullish case for the stock | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 18.21 | 20.05 | 22.12 | 24.47 |
| Growth (%) | 10.08 | 10.35 | 10.62 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 4.92 | 5.34 | 6.92 | 5.91 |
| Growth (%) | 8.43 | 29.67 | -14.63 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 46.07 | 41.74 | 38.31 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 0.57 | 0.74 | 0.63 | |
| Medium-term growth prospects remain positive, with momentum expected to improve over the next few financial periods. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | ETN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ABNB - Buy (Continue to hold) |
KMI - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 334.86 | 122.89 | 26.74 |
| Current Price | 373.46 | 128.56 | 27.50 |
| Movement | +11.5% | +4.6% | +2.8% |
| Comment |
A price developing wave b of the Elliott Wave price theory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Muted downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $395.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $349.00. |
A developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $141.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $120.50. |
The combination of a sustained uptrend in price and supportive AI-based forecasts remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Muted downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $30.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $26.10. |
| Time to exit | 28 April 2026 | 29 December 2025 | 7 November 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | OTIS - Buy (Continue to hold) |
KR - Buy (Continue to hold) |
ADTN - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 91.43 | 66.88 | 9.28 |
| Current Price | 92.70 | 67.60 | 9.33 |
| Movement | +1.4% | +1.1% | +0.5% |
| Comment |
The formation of a developing symmetrical triangle pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $100.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $88.00. |
A developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $76.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $63.50. |
The ability of the price to hold firm around historically active trading ranges remains of interest. Testing its 200-day simple moving average. Muted downside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is $11.50 with a trailing stop-loss at $8.50. |
| Time to exit | 17 December 2025 | 26 January 2026 | 22 December 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | MSCI - Stop Loss (Close the Position) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 567.02 |
| Current Price | 533.34 |
| Movement | -5.9% |
| Comment | The stock hit its stop-loss level, prompting the position to be closed. |
| Time to exit | 9 January 2026 |
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