By Peet Serfontein, Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R98.00. We recommend a stop-loss at R82.00.
Sanlam is a leading financial services group based in South Africa (SA). The company specialises in insurance, financial planning, retirement, trust, wills, short-term insurance, asset and risk management, capital market activities, investment, and wealth management. The company also owns a majority stake in listed short-term insurer, Santam.
Sanlam has been operating for more than 100 years with a footprint spanning over 40 countries. The group is highly regarded from a qualitative perspective and is well-diversified from a geographic and product standpoint. Sanlam boasts a strong balance sheet with more than adequate reserves.
Technically, the price suggests the share may be transitioning into "wave b" of an Elliott Wave corrective structure, making the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the number notation on the main chart). The recent pullback appears to have completed "wave a" of the corrective phase, with selling pressure showing signs of exhaustion near the R80 region. As the price stabilises around support, there is potential for a recovery phase towards the R98.00 resistance area, with a breakout confirming "wave b".
The Heikin-Ashi chart supports a bullish outlook, showing a shift from bearish to bullish candles as downside momentum fades and buying interest returns. With the share trading just below the key R89.50 level, a break above this resistance would strengthen the recovery narrative and support further upside potential.
The share is currently testing its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R88.77, a key technical level that often acts as support or resistance. A sustained move above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and could attract further buying interest.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | SLM SJ |
| Industry | Insurance |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 186.5 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 5.19% |
| Return Year-to-date | -5.72% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 88.09 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 108.47 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 80.72 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| Sanlam has declined 5.7% year-to-date, reflecting a weak first half despite recent signs of stabilisation. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 7.63 | 8.78 | 9.87 | 10.82 |
| Growth (%) | 14.98 | 12.49 | 9.60 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.66 | 5.96 |
| Growth (%) | 7.05 | 9.01 | 5.32 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 9.46 | 8.52 | 8.14 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 5.89 | 6.43 | 6.77 | |
| Consensus expectations point to steady earnings and dividend growth, supported by an attractive valuation and rising yield. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long term fundamental view:
| Share Name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBS SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 292.09 | 293.50 | +0.5% | A potential Elliott Wave 5 advance and fading downside momentum support this counter-trend trade despite the price remaining below the 200-day SMA. We maintain a profit target at R314.00 and a trailing stop loss at R285.00. | 3 July 2027 |
| SPG SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 17.29 | 18.90 | +9.3% | A developing symmetrical triangle remains the primary technical feature, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. Positive momentum continues to support the trade. We maintain a profit target at R20.40 and a trailing stop loss at R18.20. | 17 August 2026 |
| NRP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 142.42 | 146.70 | +3.0% | A developing ascending triangle remains the primary technical feature, with the price trading above its 200-day SMA. Positive momentum continues to support the trade. We maintain a profit target at R160.00 and a trailing stop loss at R143.00. | 17 August 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 976.99 | 1 029.00 | +5.3% | A developing bullish pennant and fading downside momentum continue to support the trade, with the price holding above its 200-day SMA. We maintain a profit target at R1 202.00 and a trailing stop loss at R981. | 4 November 2026 |
