By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position with a target price of R44.00 and recommend a stop-loss at R37.00.
Quilter is a United Kingdom (UK)-based wealth manager offering advice-led investment solutions, financial planning and a broad investment platform for pensions, savings and individual savings accounts (ISAs). Its model provides flexibility for advisers and clients through integrated advice, discretionary management and multi-asset portfolios. Headquartered in London and listed on both the London and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges, the group manages significant assets for hundreds of thousands of affluent and high-net-worth clients.
Technically, the upward-sloping linear regression channel supports a constructive outlook, with the recent pullback bringing Quilter closer to channel support, an area that has previously attracted buying interest (see the insert on the main chart). If support holds, the share could recover towards the channel midpoint and upper boundary, although a break below support would weaken the bullish case.
The Elliott Wave structure also supports the trade idea, as the share appears to be in the early stages of a potential Wave B rebound following a corrective Wave A decline. Under Elliott Wave theory, Wave B typically represents a temporary recovery within a broader correction and can offer meaningful upside if buying momentum improves. While the current setup suggests scope for a rebound, confirmation remains dependent on subsequent price action and the share's ability to sustain higher levels.
The share remains just below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at R40.60, which continues to act as a key resistance level. However, its ability to trade close to this level suggests that selling pressure may be easing as buyers absorb available supply. A decisive break above the 200-day SMA would improve the technical outlook and could signal a shift in momentum, with the level potentially transitioning from resistance into support.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | QLT |
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 52.38 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | -1.44% |
| Return Year-to-date | -1.32% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 38.67 |
| 52-Week High (ZAR) | 45.69 |
| 52-Week Low (ZAR) | 37.21 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| Quilter's share price has underperformed slightly year-to-date, with recent weakness suggesting investor sentiment has softened despite remaining above the year's lows. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Growth (%) | 14.55 | 14.29 | 10.42 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Growth (%) | 11.11 | 8.57 | 6.58 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 14.01 | 12.26 | 11.10 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.97 | 4.31 | 4.59 | |
| Strong earnings and dividend growth is expected over the forecast period, while the share trades on a declining forward P/E and offers a growing dividend yield. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JSE SA - Close Position (Stop-loss) | 156.17 | 148.50 | -4.9% | The share hit its stop-loss and the position was closed. | 1 December 2026 |
| MTN SA - Close Position (Stop-loss) | 199.31 | 182.93 | -8.2% | The share hit its stop-loss and the position was closed. | 23 November 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 877.50 | 915.75 | +4.4% | The price action within the developing-top pattern remains of interest. The share is trading below its 200-day SMA, while fading downside momentum supports the trade idea. The profit target remains R1 060.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R889.00. | 30 November 2026 |
| CLH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 4.50 | 4.40 | -2.2% | Price symmetry and improving momentum remain encouraging, while the share continues to trade just above its 200-day SMA. These factors support the trade idea. The profit target remains R5.12, with a trailing stop-loss set at R4.25. | 11 January 2027 |
| LHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 11.76 | 12.18 | +3.6% | Strong volume support remains encouraging and the share continues to trade above its 200-day SMA. Improving upside momentum supports the trade idea. The profit target remains R13.35, with a trailing stop-loss at R11.90. | 9 November 2026 |
| CML SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.21 | 41.62 | -3.7% | The price action may indicate that a fifth Elliott Wave is developing, which remains of interest. However, the share is still below its 200-day SMA and fading upside momentum is a concern. The profit target remains R49.80, with a trailing stop-loss set at R40.80. | 26 October 2026 |
| SSW SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 43.19 | 41.07 | -5.6% | The breakout from a falling wedge pattern remains of interest. However, the share is still below its 200-day SMA and fading upside momentum remains a concern. The profit target remains R56.80, with a trailing stop-loss at R39.00. | 12 October 2026 |
This trade idea can be action through FNB Local Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
