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Equity Insights: CrowdStrike - Cloud security leader

 

CrowdStrike

Cloud security leader

Founded in 2011, CrowdStrike is a leader in cloud-delivered endpoint protection, threat intelligence, and response services via its core technology called the Falcon Platform. Chief Executive Officer and founder, George Kurtz, created the business to capitalise on the growth of cloud and to leverage crowdsourced data from customers to be able to identify threats and protect customers.

The company offers a 100% cloud-based platform that is designed to stop 100% of breaches and is lightweight with no hardware and requires low CPU resources, which gives it a competitive advantage over some of its legacy peers. The single platform offering reduces complexity and cost for clients.

CrowdStrike generates 69% of revenue from the United States (US). Most revenue is generated from endpoint protection; however, the company is now branching into other areas of security such as cloud security and identity protection.

CrowdStrike's services are offered as modules on a single console platform. Customers can select which modules they require and can add more modules at a later stage if they desire or as more are created. Signing up to the service is quick and easy as there are no hardware, additional software or configuration requirements for the customer. CrowdStrikes' net retention ratio is 125% due to the strong module adoption of customers over time.

CrowdStrike runs a software as a service (SaaS) model, with 94% of revenue from subscriptions and the other 6% from professional services. The company has seen significant growth in subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR Most recently, ARR has been growing at 37%.

However, the company is still in the early innings of its growth. The total addressable market (TAM) within cybersecurity is vast and growing rapidly. CrowdStrike estimates its current TAM to be $76 billion growing at a two-year CAGR of 13% to reach just under $100 billion by 2025. When including CrowdStrike's future planned offerings, the company believes that by 2026 its TAM will be around $158 billion.

Endpoint protection

Endpoint protection is CrowdStrike's largest revenue stream. It encapsulates the technology necessary to secure the many different types of endpoints across an organisation, such as desktops, laptops, tablets, and servers. Endpoint security is very important as 90% of successful cyberattacks originate at the endpoint. In addition, 80% of valuable security data can be collected at the endpoint, which can then be used to analyse and help prevent future cyber threats.

CrowdStrike pioneered cloud-delivered endpoint security with a lightweight cloud-based, AI-powered prevention platform. Although there are many competitors in this space, CrowdStrike is the lead innovator and market leader in modern endpoint security with 17.7% market share in a still fast-growing market.

Approximately 47% of the endpoint protection market is still using "legacy" antivirus (AV), which creates a huge opportunity for CrowdStrike as potential customers replace their legacy vendors with a more modern approach. For reference, legacy AV only recognises known vulnerabilities whereas 71% of breaches are now malware-free and 80% of attacks use compromised identities, which would generally go undetected by legacy AV. As such, endpoint security remains a high growth area for CrowdStrike, particularly in small- to medium-sized businesses.

Future growth opportunities

CrowdStrike has identified a further three key areas where it sees robust future growth and for which it has created modules, being Cloud, Identity, and Next-Gen SIEM. These still make up only a small proportion of revenue (~17.0% in 2Q24) but are growing very rapidly (up 115% y/y in 2Q24). These new modules will be integral to CrowdStrike meeting its five - to-seven- year $10 billion in ARR growth target (FY23: $2.6 billion).

Cloud security management

As the global cloud grows, cloud-based attacks become more frequent. It is expected to be one of the fastest growing segments of cyber security as more enterprises move to the cloud and because cloud security remains complex, fragmented, and immature. CrowdStrike has a 5.9% market share in cloud security with a TAM of $12 billion, which is expected to grow to $31 billion by 2028. ARR in this segment has grown rapidly since CrowdStrike entered this space (~100 million in 4Q22 to $300 million in 2Q24, growing at 70% per annum organically).

Identity protection

About 80% of cyber-attacks are attributed to compromised credentials, which makes identity an important part of a cybersecurity system. CrowdStrike first went into Identity Protection in FY21 when it acquired Preempt Security, a leader in zero trust identity security. CrowdStrike's Identity Protection product is integrated as a module on its Falcon platform. The segment generates above $200 million in ARR, up from $6.8 million when it launched two years ago and with a rapidly expanding TAM.

Legacy security information and event management (SIEM)

SIEM collects log files, security alerts and events into one place so that security teams can more easily analyse data. The data is collected from other security systems and stored centrally so that analysts don't have to go to each application to conduct investigations.

CrowdStrike acquired LogScale in March 2021. Logscale enables organisations to log, search and organise data to understand and assess issues in their environments. These insights help to optimise resource availability, security, and uptime. As with Legacy AV, SIEM is dominated by incumbent vendors who are not innovating, whose systems are high cost (typically priced by the amount of data that is logged), lack scalability, run poorly in the cloud and are slow. Logscale is faster, cheaper, and more scalable. CrowdStrike saw the opportunity to disrupt this space and has grown rapidly since its acquisition of Logscale from $5.5 million in 1Q22 to $100 million in 2Q24. Management views SIEM as a $16 billion market opportunity by 2028.

CrowdStrike versus Microsoft Defender

CrowdStrike believes it is superior to Microsoft Defender across the three 'C's' - coverage, complexity, and catastrophe.

  • Coverage: CrowdStrike relies on advanced AI without the use of signatures, while Microsoft still relies on AV signature technology. Microsoft is updated six or seven times a day with new signatures which CrowdStrike believes is the same model that McAfee and Symantec have been using for the past 25 years.
  • Complexity: CrowdStrike has one console, one agent, and a lower total cost of ownership (TCO). Microsoft customers have up to nine consoles and multiple agents. This level of complexity drives up additional cost within the environment in managing, maintaining, and adding additional headcount.
  • Catastrophe: Microsoft Windows represents 95% of the compromised endpoints which CrowdStrike investigates and remediates during its incident response engagements. Further to that, during an investigation of CrowdStrike's customers who had been breached, the company discovered 75% of the time it was Microsoft Defender that had been bypassed.

Choosing the correct ETF can be a daunting task, but there are several factors to consider when making your decision.

Charlotte AI tool

CrowdStrike has recently introduced an artificial intelligence tool which is expected to be very beneficial to clients. The technology can cut down a days' work for a security analyst to five to 10 minutes job as it determines where threats are, how they apply to the environment the company is in, and then writes a report.

Financial considerations

  • Revenue growth has been very strong for CrowdStrike, driven by strong demand for its products and strong module adoption of current customers. The company has guided for revenue growth in FY24 to be 35% to 36%. Management believes the business can grow revenue by around 30% for the next few years, bringing it closer to its five-to-seven-year revenue target of $10 billion.
  • CrowdStrike has been growing its gross margin due to strategic upfront investments leading to scalable technology which has driven unit costs down; economies of scale that have led to better purchasing power; and the optimisation of costs like leveraging low-cost geographies for cloud hosting and reducing data storage by not duplicating events, and utilising AI more. CrowdStrike expects to further expand its gross margin and recently raised its three-to-five-year target to 82% to 85% despite pricing being forecast to remain stable over this period.
  • The operating profit margin was 15.9% in FY23 and is now targeted to reach 28% to 32% in the next three to five years. CrowdStrike has managed to increase its operating leverage over time as sales have grown rapidly. This is expected to continue.
  • CrowdStrike is profitable on an adjusted basis and has just reached profitability on a reported basis in 2Q24. The company is expected to record a profit on a reported basis in FY24.
  • CrowdStrike recently raised its guidance significantly due to reaching many of the targets set out in FY22 early.

Investment case summary

  • CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity company focused on endpoint security. The company is highly innovative, offering clients a cloud-based platform in contrast to traditional players where customers are required to install on-site applications.
  • The platform is designed to stop 100% of breaches and is lightweight with no hardware and requires low CPU resources, which gives it a competitive advantage over its legacy peers.
  • CrowdStrike has achieved strong growth in annual recurring revenue since its IPO in 2019, however, it is still in the early innings of its growth as its TAM is vast and growing rapidly with the opportunity to take further market share from less innovative players.
  • Apart from still growing strongly in endpoint security, the newer applications still have very low penetration in very fast-growing markets. Even among existing endpoint customers, only 34% have adopted cloud security, 9% used CrowdStrike's identity security offering and 3% utilise LogScale.
  • The company continues to optimise its cost base and leverage its growth resulting in higher operating margin expectations, which should lead to earnings growth of 30%+ medium term.
  • The company boasts a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of $2.5 billion.

Risks

  • CrowdStrike is exposed to the general macroeconomic environment. Where budgets are under strain, companies may hold back on migrating their cybersecurity or investing in additional applications.
  • Competition is another consideration - while CrowdStrike has a compelling offering relative to peers, the incumbents can adapt to provide a similar and potentially superior product.
  • Technical skills are vital in a fast-moving technology player. A shortage of and competition for skilled labour could limit the company's ability to adapt, evolve, and maintain its competitive edge.
  • Other risks include supply chain constraints and technology risk.

Consensus Considerations

  • Consensus is positive on CrowdStrike stock, with 88% of sell-side analysts maintaining a "buy" recommendation on the stock and the balance having a "hold" rating on the counter.
  • The consensus target price is quite close to the current market price of the share at $197.35.
  • Consensus forecasts adjusted EPS growth for 83.8% y/y this year (to the end of January 2024) and 24.1% for FY25 on revenue growth of 35.6% and 28.7%, respectively.

Valuation

  • We are more upbeat than consensus.
  • While it looks expensive relative to peers, the stock is expected to enjoy a superior earnings growth rate over time, justifying a premium rating.
  • The counter trades at a discount to its own valuation multiple averages (PE and EV/EBITDA).

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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