Ninety One is an asset manager offering active strategies across equities, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives to institutions, advisors, and individual investors around the world. Ninety One is listed on both the Johannesburg and London Stock Exchanges.
Ninety One holds a consistent track record of investment outperformance across multiple market cycles. Its Asset Management and Wealth businesses are doing well. In each geography where the group operates, its AUM growth has exceeded relevant industry averages long term.
Technically, a stable price makes the stock an attractive investment opportunity (see the grey shaded rectangle on the main chart). This indicates that there is a balance between supply and demand in the market and coincides with reduced volatility. The expectation is for the price to eventually progress upwards from here.
Upside price momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, supports the bullish trend.
According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), the stock will be overbought at ~R55.00. This classifies our profit target of R50.00 as realistic.
We suggest a low capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R44.70.
Share Information
| Share code | NY1 |
|---|---|
| Industry | Financial Services |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 39.67 billion |
| One year total return | -0.07% |
| Return year-to-date | 14.29% |
| Current price(ZAR) | 43.26 |
| 52 weeek high(ZAR) | 48.65 |
| 52 week low(ZAR) | 34.84 |
| Financial year end | March |
| Closing paragraph | The price remains above its 200-day simple moving average, supports a bullish bias. Expect moderate volatility in the price. |
Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY22 | FY23E | FY24E | FY25E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.15 | - |
| Growth (%) | -22.64 | -6.10 | - | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.12 | - |
| Growth (%) | - | -8.09 | -6.40 | - |
| Forward PE (times) | 11.39 | 12.13 | - | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | - | 6.69 | 6.27 | - |
| Closing paragraph | While headline earnings growth is expected to decline from a strong base (FY22: +32.5%), this is expected to normalise over the medium-term - we consider FY24 consensus expectations as being overly bearish. | |||
Buy/Sell Rationale
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental Analysis:
| Share Name and position |
AMS - BUY (Continue to hold) |
TFG - BUY (Continue to hold) |
LHC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 1003.84 | 83.54 | 19.30 |
| Current | 1147.00 | 89.83 | 20.72 |
| Movement | 14.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% |
| Summary text |
The share is correcting from the lower range of the linear regression channel pattern. Still trading below its 200-day simple moving average but approaching it. Upside momentum supports the bullish trend.
Our take profit target remains at R1 280.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R1036.00. Time exit: 18 September 2023. |
The share remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum has also halted, which is a concern.
Our take profit target remains at R132.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R71.50. Time exit: 8 July 2024. |
The price has shown signs of a potential upward trend, which is worth monitoring closely. Trading above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum halted, which is a concern.
Our take profit target remains at R22.20, with a trailing stop-loss at R19.50. Time exit: 26 June 2023. |
| Share Name and position |
MNP - Buy (Continue to Hold) |
BAW - Buy (Continue to Hold) |
OMU - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 284.46 | 85.56 | 11.67 |
| Current | 297.07 | 87.40 | 11.52 |
| Movement | 4.4% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| Summary text |
The share retraced from crucial support levels and is testing its 200-day simple moving average. The start of upside momentum supports the bullish trend.
Our take profit target remains at R328.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R278.00. Time exit: 22 May 2023. |
The share dipped below its 200-day simple moving average but is testing its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Upside price momentum halted, which is a concern.
Our take profit target remains at R104.00, with a trailing stop-loss is at R79.80. Time exit: 3 July 2023. |
We are closely monitoring the price as it counteracts a bearish trend. The share remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our take profit target remains at R16.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R10.00. Time exit: 17 November 2023. |
