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Trade Ideas

Global Trade Idea: Eaton Corp. (ETN US) - BUY

 

By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene

Eaton is an intelligent power management company that makes products for the data centre, utility, industrial, commercial, machine building, residential, aerospace, and mobility markets.

Founded in 1911, Eaton operates in 35 countries and sells products to customers in more than 160 countries. The company provides energy-efficient solutions that help customers manage electrical, hydraulic and mechanical power more effectively, safely, and sustainably.

Technically, a price in wave b of an Elliott Wave pattern presents a promising investment opportunity (see notations on the main chart). Within a bullish Elliott Wave setup, this can be regarded as a positive indicator as it represents a corrective phase before the final Wave 5 advance. This consolidation allows the market to gather momentum and resolve any short-term uncertainty, setting the stage for a stronger upward move.

The weekly price swing heatmap also supports our bull case. The heatmap reveals alternating bullish and bearish swings over the past few months, indicating a degree of volatility and uncertainty. From mid-April to mid-June 2025, ETN has demonstrated a bullish bias, with four out of six weekly swings turning positive (green), suggesting renewed upward momentum following a brief consolidation period.

Upside price momentum per the MACD histogram, as well as the recent sideways trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, also supports our bullish view.

Share Information
Share Code ETN US
Industry Capital Goods
Market Capital (USD) 131 billion
One Year Total Return 3.61%
Return Year-to-Date 1.63%
Current Price (USD) 334.86
52 Week High (USD) 379.99
52 Week Low (USD) 231.85
Financial Year End December
A price bouncing off its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) supports a bull case for the stock.

Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg)
FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Headline Earnings per Share (USD) 10.80 12.00 13.52 15.01
Growth (%) 15.8 12.66 11.05
Dividend Per Share (USD) 3.76 4.07 4.36 4.71
Growth (%) 8.35 6.97 8.01
Forward PE (times) 26.35 23.56 22.31
Forward Dividend Yield (%) 1.22 1.30 1.41
Medium -term growth prospects remain positive, with momentum expected to persist over the next few financial periods.

Buy/Sell Rationale:

Technical Analysis:

    • The lower panel shows the appearance of the Three Outside Up Japanese candlestick pattern, denoted by a reading of one. This pattern signals a strong reversal from a prior downtrend or consolidation phase. This three-candle formation begins with a bearish candle, followed by a larger bullish second candle that fully engulfs the first, and a third candle that closes higher than the second (see the insert). This reflects a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. An increase in volume adds credibility to the reversal scenario.
    • Our recommended entry range is $323 to $347 or as close as possible to $334.86 - a drop below this range would indicate a substantial change in price dynamics, giving reason to negate the trade idea.
    • Our target price is $395, representing ~18.0% upside from current levels.
    • According to forward calculations of the Relative Strength Index indicator, the stock will be overbought at $418, making our profit target realistic.
    • Our proposed time to exit is towards end of April 2026, but investors can adjust for a longer or shorter time horizon, depending on price behaviour.
    • A drop below $311, or 7.1% below current levels, would suggest weakening technicals and a stop-loss is recommended at this level.
    • We expect moderate fluctuations in the price and suggest a medium at-risk allocation for this trade. Increase exposure for a break above $347.

Fundamental view

    • Eaton operates primarily through five segments, namely:
      • Electrical Americas (~46% of revenue), which consists of electrical components, single-phase power quality and connectivity, three-phase power quality, wiring devices which are primarily produced and sold in North and South America.
      • Electrical Global (~25% of revenue) offers a broad range of products primarily for the global market excluding North and South America. This segment also includes hazardous duty electrical equipment and structural support systems that are produced and sold globally.
      • Aerospace (~15% of revenue) is the leading supplier of aerospace fuel hydraulics, and pneumatic systems for commercial and military use, as well as filtration systems for industrial applications.
      • Vehicle (~11% of revenue) includes designing, manufacturing, marketing and supplying drivetrain, powertrain systems, and critical components that reduce emissions and improve fuel economy, stability, performance, and the safety of cars.
      • eMobility (~3% of revenue) manufactures, markets, and supplies mechanical, electrical, and electronic components and systems that improve the power management and performance of both on-road and off-road vehicles.
    • ETN's global presence is dominated by the US business, which generates ~60% of the company's total revenue, with its largest customers being large data centre operators like AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud.
    • The company concluded the acquisition of Fibrebond in 2Q25, which will enhance its power systems for hyperscalers as well as modular data centres and is expected to generate ~$110 million in estimated adjusted EBITDA in 2025.
    • Eaton has a diverse range of institutional partners and strategic collaborators, including Tesla to integrate the AbleEdge system with Tesla's Powerwall; as well as Treehouse to streamline residential electrification projects.
    • In 1Q25, sales grew 7% to $6.4 billion driven by strength in the Electrical Americas, the Electrical Global, Aerospace and eMobility segments, while the Vehicles segment remained under pressure. Earnings were also strong in the period, with adjusted EPS climbing 13% to $2.72.
    • Management remains confident about its outlook and is prepared to meet demand with a proven strategy to invest in the businesses, drive operational excellence, and continue its path of growth amid broader macroeconomic volatility. Organic growth is set to be between 7.5% and 9.5% higher in 2025, and adjusted EPS (+11%) is expected to benefit from margin expansion.
    • From a risk perspective, the company is exposed to economic cycles and supply-chain disruptions. Technology and cybersecurity risks are also prevalent.

Share Name and Position PYPL US - Stop Loss
(Exit the trade)
PANW US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
SW US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 74.76 173.55 39.56
Current 68.57 199.78 42.39
Movement -8.3% +15.1% +7.2%
The trade reached our stop-loss level, and we closed the trade. A trough in the stock's price continues to attract attention. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $228 with a trailing stop-loss at $181. Exit the trade around 25 June 2025.
A trough in the Elliott wave theory remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $49 with a trailing stop-loss at $36. Exit the trade around 20 August 2025.

Share Name and Position CTAS - Buy
(Continue to hold)
MET US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
ABBV US - Buy
(Continue to hold)
Entry 205.84 79.32 185.72
Current 220.42 78.55 185.49
Movement +7.1% -0.01% -0.1%
A bullish pennant pattern continues to attract attention. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target remains at $241 with a trailing stop-loss at $206. Exit the trade by 25 June 2025.
A price in a developing rising wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains just below its 200-day SMA. Muted upside price momentum is supportive.

Our profit target remains at $89 with a trailing stop-loss at $74. Exit the trade around 29 August 2025.
A price in an upward sloping inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Continues to test its 200-day SMA. The start of downside price momentum is a concern.

Our profit target remains at $216 with a trailing stop-loss at $174. Exit the trade around 20 August 2025.

FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd, a subsidiary of FirstRand Bank Limited, an authorised Financial Services Provider and authorised user of the JSE limited (Reg no: 1996/011732/07). This Publication note is issued by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd for the information of clients only and should not be produced in whole or part without prior permission. Although FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider, any opinions and/or analysis contained in this Publication are for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice, including but not limited to financial, legal or tax advice, or a recommendation to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources/persons which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for correctness, completeness or otherwise and we do not assume liability for loss arising from errors in the information or that may be suffered from using or relying on the information contained herein irrespective of whether there has been any negligence by us, our affiliates or any other employees of us, and whether such losses be direct or consequential. As market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, any comments, opinions, and analysis is rendered as of the date of publishing and may change without notice. Such changes may have a material impact on the outcome of any investment. Securities involve a degree of risk and are volatile instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future performances. Securities or financial instruments mentioned in the Publication note may not be suitable for all investors and FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd has bares no responsibility whatsoever arising from or as a consequence hereof. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any share, instrument, sector, region, market, country, investment, or strategy. The recipient of this Publication must make their own investment decision and is advised to contact his relationship manager for a personal financial analysis prior to making any investment decisions. Copyright 2018 by FNB Stockbroking and Portfolio Management (Pty) Ltd.

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