By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
Redefine Properties is a leading South African Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). Their diversified portfolio includes directly held and managed retail, office, industrial and specialised real estate assets across South Africa, complemented by a strong presence in retail and logistics property assets in Poland. The company focuses on active asset management to deliver long-term value for shareholders. Flagship retail properties include Centurion Mall, Benmore Centre and the Alice Lane Precinct.
Technically, a price in a developing triangle pattern makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the black converging trendlines on the main chart). This pattern often indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout. The price range becomes progressively narrower indicating a tightening equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Investors can view the formation as a base for accumulation, with a breakout supporting the bullish stance.
The return of bullish swing momentum after a period of consolidation is also supportive (see the insert). This momentum, with a recent green bar, signals a renewed upswing in price traction following a sequence of alternating bullish and bearish swings. This swing may indicate that the share has found support and buyers are regaining control.
Upside momentum, according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram indicator, supports our bullish stance.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure for a break above R4.80.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | RDF |
| Industry | Real Estate |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 33.71 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 19.76% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 7.61% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 4.68 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 5.22 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 3.69 |
| Financial Year End | August |
| The price is oscillating around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of R4.56. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 0.59 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| Growth (%) | -11.89 | 4.63 | 4.61 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| Growth (%) | 9.30 | 4.72 | 7.58 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 9.03 | 8.63 | 8.25 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 9.96 | 10.43 | 11.22 | |
| Medium-term distribution growth prospects are positive. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Long-term Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | QLT - Time Exit (Close the position) |
ABG - Time Exit (Close the position) |
GRT - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 35.27 | 171.50 | 13.22 |
| Current Price | 39.45 | 174.40 | 13.81 |
| Movement | +11.9% | +1.7% | +4.5% |
| Comment | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. | The trade reached our time exit date and we closed the position. |
The price is in one of the highest price bins of the price distribution analysis. Remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R16 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.20. |
| Time to exit | 14 July 2025 | 14 July 2025 | 17 November 2025 |
| Share Name and Position | COH - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VAL - Buy (Continue to hold) |
BID - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 8.82 | 850.00 | 458.43 |
| Current Price | 9.00 | 850.00 | 449.04 |
| Movement | +2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% |
| Comment |
A price at a key distribution level remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day simple moving average. Upside price momentum is supportive.
Our profit target is R10.50 with a trailing stop-loss at R8.35. |
The price is forming a rounding top and remains above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is R1 063.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R742.00. |
The combination of a sustained bounce off the lower one standard deviation band, ongoing support from the broader upward trend and signs of renewed buying interest remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. The start of downside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R528.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R431.00. |
| Time to exit | 22 August 2025 | 10 September 2025 | 30 August 2025 |
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